India Politics | 5 November 2015
India Politics
Bihar Exit Polls mimic Opinion Poll trend of a close finish
Please refer to our Expert
Concall on Bihar Election
Only Today’s Chanakya predicts a landslide for NDA
Exit polls point to a cliffhanger finish in Bihar elections, with both formations bagging
almost equal number of seats.
However, Today’s Chanakya—whose 2014 General Elections prediction was very much
on the mark—has predicted a landslide win for NDA.
Assembly elections in Bihar and of 2014 General Elections show a consolidation trend
for NDA.
While the voter turnout at 56% was the same as witnessed in Lok Sabha elections, the
current election is different from 2014 General Elections in at least two aspects: i)
Formation of new alliances and seat sharing, and ii) significant change in tone and
content of campaigning.
Quite a few major states such as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Punjab and
Uttar Pradesh are going for polls in the coming two years. The states have around 40%
of Lok Sabha Seats, with NDA winning nearly half of them in the last elections.
However, given the current composition, it might take some time for Rajya Sabha mix
to change significantly in favor of NDA.
Exit Polls continue to hint toward a close finish; Today’s Chanakya,
however, points to an NDA landslide
The Exit Polls for 2015 Bihar elections continue to predict a very close finish
between the two major political blocks—NDA and Grand Alliance (GA), with a
slender lead to the latter. In effect, the Exit Polls, barely provide any further
clarity than what was already known from opinion polls.
However, Chanakya—the agency with a track record of more accurate
prediction in recent elections (including the 2014 General Election and 2015
Delhi elections)—has predicted a landslide victory for NDA. Interestingly, the
agency’s survey has shown anti-incumbency in the state.
Exhibit 1: Exit polls predict close fight, but Today's Chanakya predicts a landslide for NDA
Polling organisation/Agency
ABP News – Nielsen
Aaj Tak - Cicero
India TV-CVoter
Times Now – CVoter
News X
News 24 - Today's Chanakya
Median
NDA
(BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM)
108
113-127
101-121
111
90-100
155
117
Grand Alliance (GA)
(JD(U) + RJD + INC)
130
111-123
112-132
122
130-140
83
118
5
4-8
6-14
10
13-23
5
9
Source: Media, MOSL
Other
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

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BJP seen improving its tally in recent elections
The recent trend in both Assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections point to BJP’s
increasing strength in Bihar.
Incidentally, the voter turnout ratio in the state was same in the Assembly and
the Lok Sabha elections.
This, however, does not mean that Assembly election results will mimic the Lok
Sabha results. The two most notable changes in the interim include: i) The
formation of new alliances and seat sharing arrangement, and ii) substantial
shift in the tone and content of campaigning.
Exhibit 2: BJP has been gaining ground in Bihar
Party
BJP
JD (U)
JD
RJD
INC
JMM
CPI
CPM
Others
IND
Total
1985
16
1990
39
122
196
9
12
1
61
29
324
71
19
23
6
14
30
324
1995
41
167
29
10
26
6
33
12
324
124
54
22
23
9
4
12
1
5
3
1
2
1
50
23
3
20
10
6
324
243
243
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
2000
67
21
2005
55
88
2010
91
115
Exhibit 3: This has been strengthened in Lok Sabha elections
Name of Party
NDA
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP)
Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP)
Grand Alliance
Janata Dal (United) [JD (U)]
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
Indian National Congress (INC)
Others
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
Independent
Vote share (%)
Won
Change
39
15
29
15
6
3
44
-9
16
-8
20
1
8
-2
1
Vote share (%)
Won
Changes
31
19
22
10
6
6
3
3
8
-18
2
-18
4
0
2
0
1
1
0
-2
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
5 November 2015
2

India Politics
Exhibit 4: Voter turnout remained the same in 2015 state elections and 2014 Lok Sabha
elections
57
55
53
58
59
56
56
Source: Media, MOSL
State elections in the upcoming 24 months
The upcoming 24 months will see elections in key states of Tamil Nadu, West
Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
It is widely believed that the result of Bihar elections would have implications
for these elections.
These states also comprise a significant share (38%) of Rajya Sabha seats; but
given the current composition, it is still some time away for NDA to be anywhere
close to majority in the Upper House.
Exhibit 5: A few large states are going for poll in the next two years, with NDA having a fair
share in them
States
Tamil Nadu
West Bengal
Kerala
Assam
Puducherry
Goa
Punjab
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Total
As % of total seats
Elections due
before
May-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
Mar-17
Mar-17
May-17
Aug-17
Current ruling party
AIADMK
TMC
UDF (Congress led)
Congress
All India N R Congress
(NDA alliance)
BJP
NDA (SAD + BJP)
SJP
UPA
Lok Sabha
seats
39
42
20
14
1
2
13
80
5
216
Seats won by
NDA in 2014
elections
2
2
0
7
1
2
6
73
5
98
Rajya Sabha
seats
18
16
9
7
1
1
7
31
3
93
39.8
18.0
38.0
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
5 November 2015
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