28 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Dabur
BSE SENSEX
27,040
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,171
DABUR IN
1,756.5
317 / 205
-6/8/27
364
31.9
CMP: INR272
TP: INR290 (+7%)
Neutral
In-line results; foods segment impacts consolidated volumes
Dabur’s (DABUR) 2QFY16 results were in-line,
with consolidated sales up 8.7%
YoY to INR20.9b (est. INR21.2b) and underlying volume growth of 5.5% (est. 7%),
impacted by calendar shift in the foods segment and supply-related issues at
Nepal subsidiary. Consolidated volume growth (excluding the foods segment)
stood at 7%. EBITDA was up 15.9% YoY to INR4b (est. INR4b) while recurring PAT
grew 18.7% YoY to INR3.4b (est. INR3.3b).
Mixed Performance across segments—toothpaste posts 29% growth:
Consolidated consumer care segment posted 9.6% sales growth while domestic
FMCG sales were up 8.8%. Oral care was up 18.7%, home care 12.4%, OTC &
ethicals 10.7%, hair care 9.4% and health supplements 9%. While the foods
segment was up a mere 2.4% (impacted by shift in Diwali sales), skin care 2.2%
and digestives 1.5%, international business posted 8.8% YoY sales growth (6.4%
constant currency growth)—led by Turkey, Nepal and Namaste business.
Consolidated gross margin expanded 190bp YoY to 55%.
However, higher other
expenses (up 50bp YoY) and marginal increase in ad spends and staff costs (up
10bp YoY each) curtailed the gross margin flow-through, expanding EBITDA margin
120bp YoY to 19.1% (est. 18.8%).
1HFY16 consolidated performance:
Sales was up 9.7%, EBITDA 17.8% and PAT
20.7%. Gross margin expanded 260bp and EBITDA margin 120bp.
Concall takeaways:
1) Overall rural demand is weak; however, rural markets grew
ahead of urban for Dabur in 2QFY16—given its portfolio offering. 2) Project Lead:
170 people on board, with plans to expand it to 275 by FY16; currently 6-7
products are being offered to 27,000 doctors. 3) Expect 2HFY16 to be stronger for
international business.
Valuation and View:
We largely retain our estimates wherein we build in 11.9%
sales growth over FY15-17 with 120bps EBITDA margin expansion on account of
lower commodity costs. We estimate a 17% PAT CAGR over FY15-17. Though
supply-related issues at the Nepal subsidiary impacted volume recovery in
2QFY16, we believe Dabur still offers one of the better earnings visibilities in the
sector on the back of its balanced portfolio and recent investments to expand
distribution. However, we believe valuations at 38x FY16E EPS and 33x FY17E EPS
are rich. Maintain
NEUTRAL
with a target price of INR290 (33x Sept’17E EPS).
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 477.0/7.3
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
78.1
13.0
10.7
86.3
15.3
12.6
7.2
18.1
23.3
33.8
29.5
37.9
11.6
97.7
17.6
14.6
8.3
15.8
28.2
32.2
29.4
32.7
9.6
Adj.EPS(INR) 6.1
EPS Gr. (%) 15.7
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
19.1
35.5
29.7
44.7
14.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
/ Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.