21 October 2015
2QFY16 Result Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
27,288
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,252
HDFCB IN
2,506.5
2744/42.2
1,128/888
0/10/20
1,876
78.4
CMP: INR1,095
TP: INR1,350 (+23%)
HDFC Bank
Buy
In line; strong retail loan growth and branch expansion continue
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ABV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
P/ABV (X)
Div. Yield (%)
2016E 2017E 2018E
271.6
211.7
123.1
4.6
49.1
20.5
285
282
18.4
1.9
23.4
22.3
3.8
3.9
0.9
328.8
255.4
148.6
4.5
59.3
20.7
331
327
19.3
1.9
23.4
18.5
3.3
3.4
1.1
400.1
310.3
178.5
4.4
71.2
20.1
385
380
19.9
1.8
23.4
15.4
2.8
2.9
1.3
HDFC Bank's (HDFCB) 2QFY16 PAT grew 20% YoY (in line) to INR28.7b. Strong
retail loan growth (10% QoQ, 29% YoY), healthy fee income growth of 22% YoY,
robust SA growth of 19% YoY and continued branch expansion (+125 QoQ, +625
YoY to 4,227) were the key highlights of the quarter.
Loan growth (+10% QoQ and 28% YoY) was driven by a) business banking (+13%
QoQ and +24% YoY), b) personal loan (+12% QoQ, +39% YoY), c) Kissan Gold Card
(+16% QoQ, +51% YoY) and d) CV/CE (+9% QoQ, +18% YoY). Further, cut in base
rate (35bp) during the quarter (earlier than competitors) helped the bank gain
market share in corporate loans (+9% QoQ, +26% YoY). Share of retail loans
(based on HDFCB classification) increased to 63% from 62% in 2QFY15.
Led by strong loan growth, core revenue (NII+Fees) growth remains healthy
(20%+ YoY over the last five quarters)—giving HDFCB avenues to expand
aggressively (branches +17% YoY, headcount +11% YoY) and invest in the
digitalization initiatives without impact on cost ratios (C/I ratio in the 45-47%
range).
Other highlights:
a) CASA ratio remained stable QoQ at 40%; b) HDFCB made
INR500m of floating provisions; c) NSL remains the lowest among peers at 35bp;
d) CET1 ratio remained stable QoQ at 12.8%.
Valuation and view:
HDFCB is best placed in the current environment, with ~40%
CASA ratio, growth outlook of at least 1.3x industry and lowest asset quality risk. With
CET1 of ~12.8%, strong capacity building in the moderate growth cycle (branches at
4,227 v/s 1,412 in FY09) and significant digitalization initiatives, the bank is well
placed to benefit from the expected pick-up in the economic growth cycle. Despite
the recent capital raising, RoE is expected to be ~19-20% in FY17/18. Comfort on
earnings remains high. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR1,350 (4x FY17E BV).
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Dhaval Gada
(Dhaval.Gada@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.