SECTOR: HEALTH CARE
Syngene International Ltd
STOCK INFO.
BSE Sensex:28,105
S&P CNX:8,521
(INR CRORES)
11 August 2015
Initiating Coverage
Buy
INR285
Y/E MARCH
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin(%)
NP (Adj.)
EPS (Adj.)
EPS Growth (%)
BV/share
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
FY15
872
293
33.6
175
8.8
30
42.4
23
22
32.4
6.7
FY16E
1077
367
34.1
222
11.1
27
50.3
24
24
25.6
5.7
FY17E
1346
462
34.4
281
14.1
27
60.3
26
26
20.2
4.7
We recommend a BUY on Syngene International with a target
of INR 350- valuing the company at 25x FY 17E EPS
Unique CRO play:
Syngene, subsidiary of Biocon, is a contract
research organisations (CRO) with 2000+ scientists working for 16 of
the top -20 global innovators. Syngene offers integrated discovery and
development services to over 211 clients globally (103 in CY12) in
pharma, biotech, agrochemical and other industries. Long-standing
relationships with customers have been a key strength. Some of its
strategic collaborations are with Bristol - Myers Squibb, Baxter, Endo
Pharmaceuticals (pharma), and Abbott Nutrition.
Business diversification to drive value growth:
The company
has shifted from CRO to contract manufacturing (CMO) of novel
molecules. Six of its partners' molecules are in advanced stages of
clinical development (five in phase-3, one has completed phase-3). It
has signed a commercial supply pact for three of these molecules with
a large innovative player. More importantly, its partner has already
filed an NDA with the USFDA for commercial launch for one of
these three molecules a year ago.
Well positioned to leverage from growth in global pharma R&D
outsourcing trend :
Global pharmaceutical players are facing
structural issues such as profit pressures arising from impending patent
cliff, drying product pipeline and rising R&D costs. Surprisingly,
however, the new product approvals from the USFDA are on the rise.
Hence, these players are inclined to outsource some of the R&D budget
to CROs like Syngene. Outsourcing allows clients to convert a portion
of their R&D budgets from a fixed to a variable cost, giving them
greater flexibility to shift strategic and development priorities in response
to market conditions. According to Frost & Sullivan estimates, R&D
spend in the global pharma space was ~US$139 billion in 2014 whereas
the CRO pie was ~US$44 billion (32%).
Valuations & View:
We recommend buying Syngene post the listing
for a target price of INR 350 per share. We value the company at 25x
FY17E EPS at a premium to its only comparable peer in Asia. Wuxi
Pharmatech (the only comparable peer in Asia) is valued at ~20x FY17E
EPS. However, Syngene has superior financials compared to Wuxi
with FY15 margin of 33.0% (vs. Wuxi's 22.3%), ROCE of 21% (vs
10.5%) and ROE of 20.7% (vs 15.2). The novel drug CMO opportunity,
could result in earnings surprise to our estimates in FY17. Further, as
there are no other listed players in bio-pharm CRAMS space, we
believe Syngene will command a scarcity premium.
KEY FINANCIALS
Diluted Shares (cr)
Market Cap. (INRcr)
Market Cap. (US$ m)
20.0
5697
893
STOCK DATA
Major Shareholders (as of 7th Aug 2015)
Promoter
Insitution
Public & Others
74.5
18.1
7.4
Maximum Buy Price :INR300
Ravi Shenoy (ravi.shenoy@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 30896865