7 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Grasim Industries
BSE SENSEX
28,236
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,565
GRASIM IN
91.7
349.3/5.5
4024/3223
6/0/5
275/77
74.5
n
CMP: INR3,808
n
TP: INR5,130 (+35%)
Buy
Higher volume and Epoxy business lead strong beat
Strong beat:
Standalone revenue grew 15% YoY (-4% QoQ) to INR16.3b (est.
INR14.2b), led by higher volume growth in VSF and chemical businesses. VSF
revenue grew 12.6% YoY to INR12.5b (est. INR11.8b), while strong Epoxy
contribution led chemical revenue to INR4.9b (est. INR3.8b). EBITDA margin rose
to 11.8% (+6pp QoQ, +3pp YoY), led by higher utilizations, lower input cost (pulp,
sulfur) and strong Epoxy profitability. PAT was flat YoY at INR1b, led by higher
depreciation, tax and lower other income.
VSF: Strong volume beat; lower cost boosts margins:
Volume grew 19% YoY (est.
13%) as fast ramp-up of Vilayat plant (82% utilization) offset the shutdown of
Nagda plant on water issues. VSF realization improved ~2% QoQ (in line) amidst
uptick in international prices. Margin improved to 11.1% (6.9% QoQ, 7.4% YoY),
led by lower input cost (-14% QoQ).
Epoxy surprise in chemicals business:
Caustic volume was up 2% YoY (est. flat),
with 95% utilization at Vilayat; realizations were down 7% YoY (in line) due to
higher import and lower demand. Strong growth in Epoxy volume (2x YoY) and
profitability (EBITDA at INR130m v/s INR10m-15m in 4QFY15), led 7pp QoQ uptick
in margin to INR14.3% (16.2% YoY).
Management outlook:
(a) Despite strong profitability in 1QFY16, sustenance
remains elusive as prices hinge on multiple factors like downstream industry,
Chinese dynamics and policy, and crude price. However, volume and margin
levers come from (a) new plant at Vilayat with higher mix of specialty products
and (b) focus on improving quality and cost optimization.
Both businesses at the bottom of the cycle; valuation discount to UTCEM high:
We raise FY16/17 consolidated EPS by 17%/6% to factor in for (a) higher VSF
volume, (b) higher Epoxy contribution and (c) upgrades in UTCEM. The stock
trades at 12.8x FY17E consolidated EPS, 1.3x FY17E BV and implied cement
valuation of ~USD111/ton (~40% discount to UTCEM). Maintain
Buy
with a target
price of INR5,130 (SOTP-based, valuing stake in cement at USD240/ton; 40%
holdco discount and VSF at 4x FY17E EV/EBITDA).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/Ton (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
324.4 370.1 449.7
47.3 58.2 81.2
17.5 21.4 27.4
190.5 233.0 298.7
-11.4 22.3 28.2
2,519 2,726 3,000
7.6
8.5 10.0
11.7 13.8 15.8
9.7 11.2
8.3
20.0 16.3 12.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
11.4
9.5
6.8
140.9 125.3 110.6
n
n
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
6-17%
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416/
Anchit Agarwal
(Anchit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.