23 July 2015
Update | Sector: Financials
IndusInd Bank
BSE Sensex
28,371
S&P CNX
8,590
CMP: INR949
TP: INR1,140 (+20%)
Buy
Motilal Oswal values your
support in the Asiamoney
Brokers Poll 2015 for India
Research, Sales and Trading
team. We
request your ballot.
Robust growth, market share gains to continue
Best in class return ratios, well capitalized; reiterate Buy
n
n
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
IIB IN
580.7
551.1/8.6
967/534
11/14/62
85
n
n
Avg Val (INR m)/Vol ‘000 790/1,003
Market Share (MS) gains (40bp over the next three years), increasing confidence
on liability side to fund growth (500bp+ increase in CASA ratio over FY15-18),
rebound in retail loan growth, acquisition of Gems and Jewelry portfolio, and
new product launches should drive loan CAGR of 25%+ over FY15-18.
A differentiated branch expansion strategy (5% branch market share in identified
centers) would help ensure healthy SA and retail deposit growth. We expect
CASA ratio to increase from 34% in FY15 to 39% by FY18.
Healthy share of core revenues (5.6% of assets – best in the industry), continued
productivity gains, operating leverage (despite strong expansion), control over
asset quality, and strong loan growth should enable ~30% earnings CAGR.
Post the QIP issuance and expected promoter infusion (INR43.3+7.5b), CET1 ratio
would increase to ~17%—the highest amongst Indian banks. RoA and RoE remain
best-in-class at 2%+ and 18-19%, respectively. We expect CET1 of ~14% by FY18.
Building home markets to drive ~30% SA growth over FY15-18
Our branch analysis suggests that during the last three years (FY12-15), IIB has
opened more than half of its new branches in 20 districts. New Delhi was the
only metro market to feature in the top-20 list. During this period, IIB has made
significant branch MS gains in SA-rich regions like Gurgoan (3.8% branch market
share versus 1.9% in 2012), Sangli (3.7% versus 0.4%), and Kolhapur (2.8%
versus 0.3%). We believe its current strategy of building at least 15 home
markets (5%+ branch market share) would create a strong brand for IIB and
help it to deliver ~30% SA deposit CAGR over FY15-18.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
44.1 54.8 69.8
OP
41.6 51.9 66.3
NP
24.3 30.2 38.7
NIM (%)
4.0
4.1
4.2
EPS (INR)
41.8 52.1 66.6
EPS Gr. (%)
23.5 24.5 27.8
BV/Sh. (INR) 287.1 331.9 389.2
ABV/Sh. (INR) 285.4 329.1 385.3
RoE (%)
18.0 16.8 18.5
RoA (%)
2.0
2.1
2.2
Payout (%)
14.0 14.0 14.0
Valuations
P/E (X)
22.7 18.2 14.3
P/BV (X)
3.3
2.9
2.4
P/ABV (X)
3.3
2.9
2.5
Div. Yield (%) 0.5
0.7
0.8
Well equipped for next growth phase
IIB is well placed for the next growth cycle, with recent capital infusion (tier-I to
increase by >600bp; sufficient for 3-4 years of 25%+ loan growth) and strong
branch expansion (50% of existing branches opened in last three years). Pick-up
in retail growth would drive up share of its Consumer Finance Division (CFD)
and lead to NIM expansion. Since the management change in FY08, IIB’s loan
and PAT MS has improved from 0.5%/0.2% in FY08 to 1%/2.2%, and its
incremental loan MS during the period was 125bp. Over FY15-18, we factor in
27% loan CAGR and expect loan MS to rise to 1.3%.
Healthy RoE of 18%+, RoA best in class at 2%+; reiterate Buy
In the third phase of its growth cycle, IIB is likely to focus on building scale, with
its 3Ds strategy of Dominate (among top-3 banks in home markets),
Differentiate (extensive use of technology and cross-selling), and Diversify (new
product addition, payment solutions, etc). Strong core profitability (3%+ of
average assets versus private banks’ average of 2.5% and HDFCB’s 2.7%),
improving CASA ratio (best among mid-sized private banks), and healthy return
ratios (RoA of 2%+ and RoE of 18-19%) are the key positives. With growth
capital in place (17%+ CET-1 ratio), we expect 30% PAT / 25%+ EPS CAGR over
FY15-18. The stock trades at 2.9x FY17E BV and 18.2x FY17E EPS. Reiterate
Buy.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.