June 2015 Results Preview | July 2015
Technology
Company name
Cognizant Technology
HCL Technologies
Hexaware Technologies
Infosys
KPIT Technologies
MindTree Consulting
Mphasis
Persistent Systems
TCS
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
n
YoY CC revenue growth intact at tier-I, INR tailwind
While last quarter’s nemeses turns around, smaller companies still misfiring
Expect some reprieve after a quarter of revenue misses across the board
n
1Q is a seasonally strong quarter. This time around, cross-currency stabilization
and INR depreciation are additional tailwinds to earnings.
Except for TECHM, we expect YoY growth in constant currency (CC) to be stable
or accelerate marginally in 1QFY16.
Exhibit 1:
Ex-TECHM, CC YoY revenue growth is unlikely to decelerate
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16E
Please refer to our report
dated 28 April 2015
TCS
INFO
WPRO
HCLT
TECHM
CTSH
Source: Company, MOSL
n
n
Sequentially, constant currency (CC) growth has accelerated every year in 1Q
over FY11-15 (~100bp on average).
Seasonality has historically been more pronounced at TCS and CTSH. We expect
that to remain, with 4.4% and 3.8% QoQ CC growth, respectively. TECHM’s
Telecom-led softness would keep its performance muted (flattish QoQ CC).
Exhibit 2:
Expected
quarterly performance summary
Sector
CMP
(INR)
921
255
985
93
1,269
411
601
2,552
1,201
478
544
Reco
Buy
Sell
Buy
UR
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sales (INR m)
Var % Var %
Jun-15
YoY
QoQ
97,475
15.7
5.2
7,556
23.8
5.9
140,516
10.0
4.8
7,838
13.6
2.7
9,915
17.5
8.0
14,916
0.1
4.4
5,061
16.4
1.7
257,685
16.5
6.4
2,136
12.0
-7.6
62,412
21.9
2.0
123,655
11.0
1.8
729,165
14.3
4.6
EBDITA (INR m)
Var % Var %
Jun-15
YoY
QoQ
22,745
2.6
8.8
1,424
40.0
12.1
37,552
9.1
0.6
725 -12.8 110.7
2,027
20.3
13.5
2,231
-9.8
10.7
958
0.9
-4.7
72,699
14.2
2.9
421
11.8
-11.1
9,374
1.0
0.9
27,923
9.5
1.4
178,080
9.7
3.2
Net Profit (INR m)
Var % Var %
Jun-15
YoY
QoQ
18,550
1.0
10.2
1,082
41.4
29.7
30,132
4.4
-2.7
421 -17.1
-16.4
1,528
18.1
18.7
1,857
6.2
4.5
670
-2.6
-11.8
56,849
12.4
-3.7
252
21.0
-15.7
5,978
-5.2
26.7
22,426
6.6
-1.4
139,745
7.2
0.0
HCL Technologies
Hexaware Tech.
Infosys
KPIT Tech.
Mindtree
MphasiS
Persistent Systems
TCS
Tata Elxsi
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
Sector Aggregate
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
July 2015
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