17 April 2015
Update | Sector: Real Estate
Phoenix Mills
BSE Sensex
28,442
S&P CNX
8,606
CMP: INR375
TP: INR455 (+21%)
Buy
Strong consumption trends entail rental headroom
Dev Co’s success - key to further growth capital
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
n
PHNX IN
144.8
54.3/0.9
416/236
1/-4/23
34/97
34.1
n
n
n
Consumption continues to outpace rentals - growth headroom intact at malls.
E-tailing advent is distant for best in class retail assets of Phoenix Mills (PHNX); no
major risk to 2x rental growth by FY19E led by renewals and stake increases.
Next leg of growth capital hinges on Dev Co’s success, where significant value
unlocking is awaited. Scale-up with launch cycle is gaining traction.
PHNX has underperformed the realty index, largely led by concern on its retail
specific risk, which is distant and unlikely to impact our base case growth
assumptions. We value PHNX based on SOTP of INR455/share. Maintain Buy.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
17.3 22.9 25.9
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
8.2
1.3
8.8
-1.1
125.
7.0
12.1
42.8
3.0
11.0
3.0
20.4
132.
7
143.
14.2
16.4
18.4
2.6
12.1
3.4
23.7
15.9
163.
14.5
18.2
15.9
2.3
Consumption continues to outpace rentals – growth headroom intact
PHNX’s five key malls have been posting 15-40% YoY growth in consumption
(average ~28%) and trading density (average ~22%) over the past 12-18 months.
During this period, rental income recorded 13-16% YoY growth. Rentals as a
percentage of consumption across malls have declined 2-6pp over the past five to
six quarters (at 10-12%). Thus, headroom for re-rating of rentals remains intact in
the upcoming renewals over FY16-19. Incremental leasing for marginal retailers at
market city malls is taking place at 30-50% higher rentals than the existing
average.
E-tailing advent distant for best assets; no major risk to 2x rental scale-up
Around 15-25% of the mall area comprises of supermarkets/hypermarkets along
with electronics, mid-end apparel segments etc which are the showcase products
of e-commerce players. PHNX believes that the advent of online stores is some
distance away for market leader and best in class retail assets like HSP and market
city malls. This is validated by steady consumption growth at malls so far. Adjusted
for increased effective stakes, PHNX to post ~17% rentals CAGR over FY15E-19E to
INR9.8b in FY19E (v/s 2x of INR4.9b in FY15E). Of the incremental rentals of
~INR5b, ~25% is attributable to stake increase and rest for renewals.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
As on
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13
66.0
4.2
23.6
6.3
66.0
4.2
23.0
6.9
65.9
4.6
22.3
7.1
Notes:
FII incl. depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Significant value unlocking from Dev Co to aid next leg of growth capital
Currently, rentals from operating malls less the interest outgo is cash break-even,
with added outflow for stake increases. Thus, benefits of surplus cash (yet to
percolate) are expected as rentals grow and monetization cycle accelerates in Dev
Co (only 33% of its 7.5msf assets monetized so far). We estimate ~INR35b (75-
80% is attributable to PHNX) of net cash flow from Dev Co over the next three to
five years. Launch cycle is gaining traction along with potential recovery in
demand scenario. Success of Dev Co monetization would be key to pursue growth
and balance sheet health (by deleveraging) together, while equity capital (REIT)
remains a secondary option.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Anchit Agarwal
(Anchit.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2397
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.