26 February 2015
Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
BSE Sensex
29,005
S&P CNX
8,762
CMP: INR2,765
TP: INR3,200 (+16%)
Buy
Revenue growth traction intact…
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
…but sustaining profitability is the key challenge
TECHM IN
240.0
2998/1678
0/10/11
670.1
10.8
1634/757
63.3
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
2015E 2016E 2017E
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
225.7 287.8 335.0
43.1
28.9
4.4
27.0
28.7
17.0
21.2
13.1
53.2
35.6
23.0
26.2
29.2
18.7
17.2
10.5
63.9
43.9
23.2
26.4
30.0
17.7
14.0
8.3
130.4 160.4 197.7
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13
Promoter
36.0
36.2
36.5
DII
10.6
10.8
15.1
FII
39.6
39.1
32.6
Others
13.7
14.0
15.8
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tech Mahindra
Sensex - Rebased
Organic revenue growth in Telecom is driven by three trends for TECHM: [1]
Digitization programs of Telecom service providers, [2] Continued share
gains in the Renewal market and [3] Addition of Network services to its
portfolio.
However, despite multiple revenue drivers, organic CC growth in FY16 for
Telecom vertical should lag the high base of ~25% YoY CC organic growth in
9MFY15.
Deal wins in Enterprise segment have progressively improved, with TECHM
winning sizeable deals in verticals other than Manufacturing too, in last
couple of quarters. That will help propel organic growth in Enterprise
segment to industry average in FY16, compared to high single digits in FY15.
Headwinds to margins in 4Q will come from: [1] Wage hikes effective in
January, [2] Partial impact from LCC integration. However, impact to
margins would be cushioned by seasonality in Comviva. Key pressure to
margins will come in 1QFY16 from [1] Full quarter impact of LCC and Sofgen
integrations,[2] Visa expenses and [3] Base effect of Comviva in 4Q.
TECHM’s aim will be to maintain organic revenue margins at levels similar
to FY15 (~19%), while acquisitions will be a 100bp headwind on top of the
same.
Our EBITDA margin for FY16 is lower by 70bp to 18.5% given the pressures
in 1QFY16 that should suppress the profitability, which we expect to pick up
during the course of the year. This also feeds into 4.6% cut in EPS estimate
for FY16.
Telecom growth pockets expand beyond market-share gains
3,100
2,700
2,300
1,900
1,500
TECHM has grown over the years in Telecom vertical by gaining market
share, increasing presence in multiple
areas of the Telecom vertical like
Managed Services. Recent foray in the Network services has been yet
another step in this direction to increase its addressable market opportunity.
In addition to that, growth in Telecom in FY15 has been supported by
digitization programs picking up across various Telecom companies.
For FY16 LCC will be an inorganic growth driver for the Telecom vertical,
organically too, while the growth will continue to be sanguine too. However,
the base growth in FY15 is significantly high -
25% YoY constant currency
growth in the 9MFY15, all of which is organic. Organic growth in FY16 is
expected to be relative lower due to the base effect.
Integration of LCC acquisition is expected to contribute USD430m+ of
revenues to the Telecom vertical in FY16.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.