10 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Capital Goods
VA Tech Wabag
BSE SENSEX
28,356
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,566
VATW IN
26.6
39.0/0.6
1,748/545
-10/-4/124
82/66
70.9
CMP: INR1,472
TP: INR1,640 (+12%)
Buy
Standalone performance in line; subsidiary performance impacted by
project delays
Consolidated revenue grew 5% YoY to INR6.2b, supported by 9% YoY increase in
subsidiary revenue to INR3.3b. Standalone revenue remained flat YoY at INR2.9b.
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined 5% YoY to INR423m led by INR 100m of
provisions related to liquidity damages for Al Gubra project due to execution delays
and increase manpower cost in Istanbul because of increased O&M order inflows.
Consolidated PAT declined 36% YoY to INR138m because of higher tax provisioning
at subsidiary level in order to comply with local tax regulations.
Book-to-bill at 2.2x; framework contracts at INR16.9b
Order backlog at the end of 3QFY15 was at INR69.7b, translating into book-to-bill
ratio of 2.2x. Order book comprises of firm order backlog of INR52.8b and
framework contracts of INR16.8b. EPC orders accounted for 66% of the closing order
book at INR35.1b, while O&M accounted for remaining one-third of the closing order
book. Municipal orders accounted for 87% of the unexecuted order book at
INR46.2b, while the Industrial segment accounted for just 13% of its closing order
book at INR6.7b, indicating tepid pace of order finalization and execution.
Valuation and view
At the CMP, VATW trades 24x FY16E EPS of INR62 and 18x FY17E EPS of INR82. Near-
term orders inflows are expected to come mainly from the municipal segment, as
industrial capex is yet to show signs of improvement. Consistent increase in O&M
orders is a key positive, as it entails higher margins and lower capital requirement,
leading to improvement in VATW’s RoCE from 21% in FY15 to 28% in FY17. Maintain
Buy,
with a target price of INR1,640 (20x FY17E EPS of INR82).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
25.4
2.3
1.2
43.5
6.4
350.9
12.4
20.7
33.8
4.2
30.5
3.0
1.6
61.8
42.1
398.7
15.5
24.3
23.8
3.7
37.9
3.8
2.2
82.0
32.6
463.2
17.7
27.7
17.9
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com)
/
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.