4 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
Jindal Steel & Power
BSE SENSEX
28,883
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,724
JSP IN
914.9
350/125
-9/-56/-79
38.9
n
CMP: INR154
n
TP: INR140 (-9%)
Neutral
Jindal Power, global ventures disappoint
In-line EBITDA:
Consolidated EBITDA declined 13% QoQ to INR14.3b (our
estimate: INR14.7b). Standalone EBITDA declined 7% QoQ to INR10.3b (our
estimate: INR9.2b), as captive power generation grew 29% QoQ. Jindal Power
disappointed, with QoQ decline in generation and lower margin. Global ventures
remain a drag on EBITDA due to poor performance of coal mining assets.
Reports loss:
Interest expenses jumped 17% QoQ to INR7b, as net debt increased
by INR42.5b to pay for INR31b coal levies. Depreciation increased 10% QoQ to
INR7.1b due to capitalization of billet caster at Angul, steel melt shop at Shadeed,
etc. At the PAT level, JSP reported a loss of INR16.7b, including provisions of
INR18.55b towards coal levies. Adjusted PAT was INR2.36b.
Cutting estimates, target price:
The performance of global ventures is not
improving on expected lines. We have increased losses from overseas in our
estimates to factor slower than expected recovery. As a result, consolidated
EBITDA is down 0.7% to INR62.4b for FY15 and 4.4% to INR60.8b for FY16. We
have cut our target price by 11% to INR140, based on FY16 estimates. We value
the stock at INR200/share based on FY17 estimates.
Uncertainties abound; maintain Neutral:
JSP is undergoing major change of
business model due to de-allocation of coal mines and closure of Sarda mines.
Margins in the merchant pellet business are on structural decline due to
overcapacity. Under the changed circumstances and uncertainties on e-auction,
PPA, FSA and Sarda iron ore mines, it is difficult to accurately forecast earnings.
The recently disclosed list of bidders suggests that e-auction of coal blocks will be
aggressive and JSP has only marginal strategic advantage over competition. The
stock trades at significant discount to replacement cost, but RoCE too has shrunk
significantly. We prefer to wait for the clouds of uncertainties to clear, as the
business environment is still challenging. Maintain
Neutral.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 140.5/2.3
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 1101/5187
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
AdjEPS(INR)
EPS Gr(%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
( )
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2015E 2016E 2017E
210.4
62.4
12.0
13.1
-37.2
5.6
5.8
11.7
0.7
9.0
245.5
60.8
3.5
3.8
-70.7
1.7
4.8
40.1
0.7
9.3
296.4
72.8
10.5
11.4
198.0
5.0
6.7
13.5
0.7
7.7
n
n
66%
11%
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.