16 April 2014
Update | Sector: Consumer
Nestle India
BSE Sensex
22,277
S&P CNX
6,675
CMP: INR4,779
TP: INR5,065
Neutral
Domestic volumes subdued; growth at multi-year low
FCF, leverage improve with conclusion of capex program
We analyzed Nestle India's (NEST) annual report for CY13. Our key takeaways:
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
NEST IN
96.4
5,865/4,547
-2/-22/-15
460.8
7.6
Marginal uptick in overall volumes, but domestic volumes flat; revenue growth at
multi-year low.
Volumes declined in Chocolates and Milk Products on low base.
Cash flow ratio (FCF/Sales) improves, as capex program is over.
Given the rich valuations (34.5x CY14E and 29.7x CY15E EPS) coupled with
subdued demand environment, we maintain Neutral.
Domestic volumes subdued; growth at multi-year low
NEST registered volume growth of 1.9% on a base of 0.8%, reflecting the double
whammy effect of slowdown in discretionary segment and the company’s
portfolio optimization strategy. Volume growth in the domestic business was
0.8%. Milk Products (-1.1%) and Chocolates (-2.2%) witnessed volume declines.
Volume growth was relatively better for Beverages (9.3%) and Prepared Dishes
(3.8%). Milk Products contributed 40.9% of incremental value growth while
Prepared Dishes contributed 35.3%. The volume contribution of Milk Products
declined to 30.3% while the contribution of Prepared Dishes grew to 53.5%.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales
90.6 104.4 119.2
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
19.7
11.6
5.7
55.8
49.4
39.6
19.5
22.5
13.4
15.0
53.1
54.5
34.5
17.3
25.5
15.5
16.1
54.9
64.9
29.7
15.4
120.6 138.7 160.9
245.7 276.3 310.1
Gross margin flat; EBITDA margin declined 20bp
Gross margin stayed flat at 54.3%. Commodity cost inflation offset the product
mix and pricing gains. EBITDA margin declined 20bp, as higher selling and
administrative spends (up 40bp) and staff cost (up 20bp) were partially offset
by lower manufacturing cost (down 30bp). Input cost inflation is a key risk in
CY14. NEST’s commodity cost index was up 3% in CY13 and could increase ~10%
in CY14. Inflation in milk, milk solids and palm oil has risen.
Shareholding pattern (% )
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
Dom. Inst
Foreign
Others
62.8
5.9
13.6
17.8
62.8
6.3
13.0
17.9
62.8
7.2
11.7
18.3
Strong FCF generation; balance sheet turns net cash
With the conclusion of NEST’s capex program, free cash flows and leverage
improved. Balance sheet turned net cash; working capital improved but
dividend payout ratio declined. NEST maintained per share payout at INR48.
Stock Performance (1-year)
Valuations rich; maintain Neutral
NEST’s strategy of aligning resources behind its high margin portfolio is a long
term positive but impacts near-term volumes. Despite a weak base, we do not
expect material improvement in volume growth (channel checks suggest
continued weakness). RM inflation is a key risk to earnings. Rich valuations
(34.5x CY14E and 29.7x CY15E EPS) do not provide any margin of safety.
Maintain
Neutral.
Reversal of urban sentiment, pick-up in the pace of
innovation/new launches are key upside risks to our recommendation.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.