17 January 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
BSE SENSEX
20,608
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. INR b/USD b
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,113
RIL IN
3,230.6
2,811.5/45.7
955/765
2/-9/-6
CMP: INR885
TP: INR957
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2014E
3,992
306
219
74.8
4.1
680
11.6
11.0
13.1
1.3
2015E
3,928
358
246
84.1
12.7
750
11.8
11.5
11.6
1.2
2016E
3,910
402
275
93.8
11.6
830
11.9
11.8
10.4
1.1
Reliance Industries’ (RIL) 3QFY14 EBITDA was largely in line at INR76.2b (-9% YoY,
-3% QoQ). However, PAT was above estimate at INR55.1b (flat YoY and QoQ,
estimated INR52b) led by lower depreciation at INR21.4b (-13% YoY, -4% QoQ) and
higher other income at INR23b (+32% YoY, +12% QoQ).
GRM in-line; Petchem below est. led by lowest margins in the last 5 quarters
RIL reported refining EBIT of INR31.4b (-13% YoY, -1% QoQ) and GRM of USD7.6/bbl (-
21% YoY, -1% QoQ) v/s estimate of USD7.5/bbl, leading to a premium over Singapore
GRM of USD3.3/bbl. Petchem EBIT was below estimate at INR21b (est. INR23.1b) led
by lower margins, primarily in PP/PVC and fibre intermediates. EBIT margin stood at
8.4% (v/s 8.8% in 3QFY13, 10.1% 2QFY14), lowest in past five quarters.
Telecom capital employed at INR260 (+INR50b QoQ); retail PAT turns positive
Telecom venture capital employed stands at INR260b, implying an increase of INR50b
in 3QFY14. RIL has recently applied to participate in the ongoing 2G spectrum auction
and is expected to launch voice services along with its core data offering. Organized
retail business reported positive PAT for the first time (number not disclosed), while its
revenue stood at INR39.3b (+16% QoQ, +38% YoY) and EBITDA at INR1b (+6% QoQ).
Expect KG-D6 to avg. ~15mmscmd in FY15; meaningful ramp-up still 3-4 years away
While management did not give any details on its telecom venture, the capital
employed stands at INR260b, implying an increase of INR50b in 3QFY14. RIL has
recently applied to participate in the ongoing 2G spectrum auction and is expected to
launch voice services along with its core data offering. Organized retail business
reported positive PAT for the first time (number not disclosed), while its revenue
stood at INR39.3b (+16% QoQ, +38% YoY) and EBITDA at INR1b (+6% QoQ).
Valuation and view
RIL’s earnings profile for the next few quarters seems to be largely range-bound,
with meaningful addition only towards early FY16 when bulk of its polyester capacity
is commissioned. We expect the next earnings growth in RIL in FY17, when its large
projects commission and gas volumes increase. Till then, RoE will hover at ~12%. On
FY15E basis, the stock trades at 11.6x adj. EPS of INR84.1 and EV/EBITDA of 8.1x. Our
SOTP-based target price stands at INR957/share. Neutral.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Kunal Gupta
(Kunal.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report
.