Metals Weekly
16 January 2012
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Price EV/EBITDA P/BV
(INR) FY12E FY13E FY12E
Steel
Tat a Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
Sesa Goa
Non-ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
HZL
Nalco
Hindalco
Mid-caps
Monnet Ispat
Godawari
Sarda Energy
Tat a Sponge
Adhunik Met.
Bhushan Steel
Jai Balaji
Rain Comm.*
Prakash Inds.
416
93
638
503
187
103
127
58
133
399
100
105
255
42
339
31
32
38
6.1
8.4
7.0
8.9
6.1
3.4
5.3
5.8
5.8
10.9
3.8
9.2
1.2
5.2
9.1
10.1
2.9
3.6
5.1
8.1
6.0
8.1
8.8
2.4
3.5
3.1
5.2
8.3
4.1
6.1
0.5
3.5
8.6
5.9
3.0
2.9
1.5
1.0
0.8
2.6
1.0
0.7
1.9
1.3
1.4
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.3
Metal Prices
CMP
16-Jan
HRC Tube grade-Mumbai (INR/ton)36,491
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
578
HRC (USD/ton) fob China
668
Sponge iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
24,600
Pig iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
24,660
Iron ore spot (USD/ton) cfr China
146
Coke (USD/ton) fob
375
Shred. scrap(USD/ton)fob Rotterdam 433
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
3m LME (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
Gold (INR/10gms)
Sliv er (INR/1kg)
Lead 3m LME (USD/ton)
FC 6-8% C 60% (USD/lb Cr)
INR/USD
BDI
4,971
2,145
109
818
1,960
100
357
8,000
412
27,403
51,517
2,012
1.09
51.4
1,053
%
0
0
0
4
0
1
0
2
0
4
3
0
6
3
-2
6
2
-1
1
2
0
-2
-19
Week
9-Jan
36,491
578
668
23,600
24,660
145
375
425
4,976
2,069
105
819
1,853
97
365
7,540
404
27,675
50,920
1,966
1.09
Quarter
%
2-Jan
0 36,491
0
578
0
669
8
0
1
0
3
0
6
3
-1
6
3
-4
5
2
1
3
-1
0
22,800
24,660
144
375
418
4,970
2,020
105
822
1,845
97
371
7,600
404
27,102
50,010
2,035
1.09
53.3
1,738
YTD FY12
%
1-Apr
2 35,811
-18
708
-7
722
22 20,200
8 22,937
-19
181
-6
400
2
425
8
-18
-7
11
-19
-5
-19
-15
-3
4,592
2,631
116
736
2,417
105
439
9,360
424
Note: Detailed table on pg 21
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Steel
A. Mittal EUR 14.735
Posco k KRW 385.5
US Steel USD 27.3
Nucor
USD 41.17
Gerdau
BRL 15.8
Bao Steel CNY 4.9
Non-ferrous
Alcoa
USD 9.2
Teck Res. USD 37.3
Xstrata
GBp 10.2
BHP
AUD 35.2
Rio Tinto AUD 62.5
Detailed on pg21
EV/EBITDA
CY11 CY12
5.6
5.2
7.4
7.8
7.5
6.0
5.5
4.8
5.0
6.5
6.6
5.5
P/BV
CY11
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.7
1.1
0.8
32 20,780
-9 56,500
-27
2,752
-21
1.38
15
-30
44.6
1,498
52.4 -3
1,308 -39
Source: MMR/LME/Metal Bulletin/SteelPricesIndia/MOSL
Sponge iron prices make 3-year high; Aluminum production cuts
good only for Europe
Steel prices continued to improve across geographies such as Europe
6.4
6.2
0.7
4.6
4.4
1.2
4.8
4.3
1.0
4.6
4.3
2.6
4.2
4.1
1.8
Source: Bloomberg
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
BSE Metals Index
Sensex
110
108
106
104
102
100
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Indexed to 100 on 9 January 2012
Stock performance table on pg 22
(up 0.7% WoW), Russia (up 1.9% WoW), the Middle East (up 0.8% WoW)
and North America (up 1.1% WoW) while declining in China (down 0.4%
WoW). Indian long steel prices also improved, up 1.5% WoW while flat
steel prices remained unchanged. Sponge iron prices increased 4.2%
WoW to a 3-year high of INR24,600/t.
Iron ore prices are up only USD1 to USD146/ton despite supply disruptions
from Brazil and Australia due to unfavorable weather conditions and
dwindling exports from India on account of increase in export duty. A
weaker steel market and high iron ore inventories in China dampened
sentiments. Australian ports have normalized now.
Aluminum production cuts announced by Alcoa and other smelters in
the West boosted market sentiments. The 3-month LME Al prices
increased 4% WoW. However, the production cuts announced in the
West will not be sufficient because Chinese production still remains
high despite high costs. New projects in the Middle East will add to
supplies in 2012 and 2013. Nonetheless, the duty paid regional premiums
in Europe have increased as the region will have to import more.
1
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5412
16 January 2012
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5413

Metals Weekly
Contents
Page No.
Ferrous
..................................................................................
3-10
India ............................................................................................................ 3
European Union ..........................................................................................4
China ............................................................................................................ 5
Other regions ........................................................................................ 6 & 7
Steel raw material.................................................................................8 & 9
Ferro alloys ................................................................................................ 10
Non ferrous
..........................................................................
11-17
Aluminum ................................................................................................. 11
Copper ....................................................................................................... 13
Zinc ............................................................................................................ 14
Lead ........................................................................................................... 15
Commodity curve analysis ....................................................................16
China non-ferrous trade data ................ ...............................................17
Key indicators
...........................................................................
18
Industrial production growth across the globe
........................
19
BSE Exchange announcements
................................................
20
Metals valuation matrix
...........................................................
21
Metals stock performance
.......................................................
22
16 January 2012
2

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Ferrous
INDIA
Indian flat steel price s were flat WoW (INR/t)
HRC tube grad e Mumb ai
50,000
CR C 0.63 DSK Del hi
GP 0.63 Del hi
Indian flat steel prices increased 1%
WoW. Tube grade HRC prices was flat
WoW to INR36,491/t while
GP 0.63mm prices increased
2.4% WoW to INR45,552/t
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
Indian long steel prices increased 1.5% WoW (Mandi; INR/t)
Pen ci l Ingo t
Re bar 12mm
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Indian long steel prices increased
1.3% WoW. Prices of pencil ingot
increased 1.3% WoW to
INR34,450/t while Rebar prices
increased 1.3% WoW
to INR49,068/t
Steel intermediates and raw material prices (INR/t)
DR I Ra i pur
30,000
Pi g Rai pu r
HMS 80:20 Man di
Iron ore for DRI
‐
RHS
8,600
7,200
5,800
4,400
3,000
HMS scrap prices increased
1.3% WoW to INR25,558/t while
Sponge iron prices increased
4.5% WoW to INR24,600/t
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
India: Monthly crude steel production
Indi a
6.8
6.2
5.6
5.0
4.4
YoY (%)
30
20
10
0
‐10
Source: SteelPricesIndia/ WSA/ MOSL
16 January 2012
3

Metals Weekly
European Union
European steel prices increased 0.7% WoW (EUR/t)
North
700
So uth
Imp orts
European Steel prices
increased 0.7% WoW
600
500
400
300
Rotterdam export shredded scrap prices were up 1.8% WoW to USD433/ton
Rotterd am (USD/t)
500
Do mes ti c (EUR/t)
Rotterdam export shredded scrap
prices was flat WoW at USD418/t
400
300
200
100
Eur ope an medium section price s wer e up 0.2% WoW to USD6 24/t on
(EUR/t)
700
600
Rei nforci ng Bar 
Medi um Secti ons
European medium section prices was
up 0.2% WoW to USD624/t
500
400
300
European Union: Monthly crude steel production
EU
18
15
13
10
8
YoY (%)
70
40
10
‐20
‐50
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/SBBS/WSA/MOSL
16 January 2012
4

Metals Weekly
China
Chinese rebar prices decreased 0.8% WoW (USD/t)
800
HRC
730
Reba r
Chinese HRC prices decreased
0.3% WoW and Rebar prices
increased 2% WoW respectively
660
590
520
450
Steel trade (m tons)
Exports
6
5
3
2
0
Imports
Steel inventories (m tons)
10
9
7
6
4
Monthly crude steel production
Chi na
62
57
52
47
42
37
32
27
YoY (%)
52
39
26
13
0
‐13
‐26
Source: Metal Bulletin/ Bloomberg/ SBBS/WSA/MOSL
16 January 2012
5

Metals Weekly
Other regions
CIS steel export prices (USD/t)
Ru ss i a HRC
Bi l l e t
Sl a b
850
700
550
400
250
Black Sea export billet prices
increased 0.8% WoW to USD608/ton
while Russian HRC export prices
increased 1.9% WoW to USD608/ton
Midd le East import and Turkish export s teel prices (USD/t)
950
Mi dd l e East HRC Impo rt
800
650
500
350
Turk i sh Exp B i l l ets
North America domestic HRC prices (USD/t)
Do mes ti c HRC
900
Shredd ed s crap
North American local HRC prices
increased 3.4% WoW to USD693/ton
700
500
300
100
CIS: Monthly crude steel production
10
9
8
7
6
0
‐30
CIS
Yo Y (%)
60
30
Source: Metal Bulletin/SBBS/WSA/ Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
6

Metals Weekly
Other regions
Middle East: Monthly crude steel production
Mi dd l e East
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
Yo Y (%)
28
16
4
‐8
‐20
North America : Monthly crude steel production
North Ameri ca
11
9
8
6
4
YoY (%)
80
40
0
‐40
‐80
Global : Monthly crude steel production
Gl ob al
140
125
110
95
80
0
YoY (%)
40
20
‐20
Source: Bloomberg/ WSA/MOSL
16 January 2012
7

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Indian 63.5% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/t)
CIF
200
FOB
China spot CFR iron ore prices
increased 1% WoW to
USD146/ton DMT
160
120
80
40
OTC iron-ore swaps (USD/t)
1Q12
170
155
140
125
110
2Q12
2012
2013
China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)
Ore Imports
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
45
40
35
Ore Prod
60
55
50
China iron-ore inventories (m tons)
100
90
80
70
60
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
8

Metals Weekly
Steel raw material
Freight rates to China (USD/t)
56
42
28
14
0
Brazi l
Austra l i a
Ind i a
Coal Price Index
Ri cha rds Bay Steam Coa l
150
125
100
75
50
Coke Price Index
Chi n a cok e export sp ot (LHS)
Chi n a 1st gra de me tal l urgi cal cok e
450
400
350
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200
300
250
2,150
2,100
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
9

Metals Weekly
Ferro alloys
China’s imports of mang anese ore and conc
Imports
1,400
1,100
800
500
200
225
100
Pri ces
 (RHS)
475
350
Manganese and chrome ore FOB spot prices
9.5
8.3
7.0
5.8
4.5
Mn 48% Europe s pot
40% Chrome Afri ca (RHS)
300
250
200
150
100
Ferro and silico manganese prices (USD/t)
1,600
1,450
1,300
1,150
1,000
FeMn 75%Mn‐7.5%C 
Si Mn 65%Mn‐17%Si
 
Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)
Fe Chrome 50% Cr Chi na
16,000
13,000
10,000
7,000
4,000
Fe Chrome 63% Cr Pi tturs burgh
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
10

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
LME inventories and prices
Inventori es
3,200
2,700
2,200
1,700
1,200
Spot
5
4
4
3
2
Aluminum prices increased 4.5%
WoW to USD2,110/ton
Global primar y aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
3,800
3,550
3,300
3,050
2,800
YoY
32
20
8
‐4
‐16
China primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
1.8
1.5
1.2
16
0.9
0.6
‐2
‐20
Producti on
YoY
70
52
34
India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production
160
120
80
40
0
Hi nda l co
Ba l co
Na l co
VAL
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
11

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
Aluminium Raw Material and Power Cost for Marginal Producer US
4,000
3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
CPC
Al umi na
Power
LME
CPC US
700
575
450
325
200
Alumina
480
400
320
240
160
Industrial Power US (Lousiana)
10.0
8.5
7.0
5.5
4.0
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/ Bloomberg/Industry/MOSL
16 January 2012
12

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Copper
LME inventories and prices
Inventori es
12,500
Spot
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Copper prices increased
6% WoW to USD7,965/ton
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
YoY ‐ RHS
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
‐2.5
China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
0.54
0.48
0.42
0.36
0.30
YoY ‐ RHS
36
25
14
3
‐8
India: Company-wise refined copper monthly production
80
60
40
20
0
Hi ndal co
HCL
Sterl i te
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
13

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Zinc
LME inventories and prices
Invento ri es
3,000
2,500
S pot
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Zinc prices increased
6.3% WoW to USD1,943/ton
2,000
1,500
1,000
Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
YoY - RHS
22
14
6
-2
-10
China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
YoY ‐ RHS
60
40
19
‐2
‐22
India: Company-wise refined zinc monthly production
80
60
3
40
20
0
3
3
3 2
2
3 3 2 3 3
HZL
BZL
2
3
3 3
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
2
3
2
3
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
14

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Lead
LME inventories and prices
In ve ntori es
3,000
S pot
0.5
0.4
0.3
2,000
0.2
1,500
1,000
0.1
0.0
Lead prices decreased
0.2% WoW to USD1,975/t
2,500
Global refined Lead monthly production and YoY growth
Produ cti on
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
YoY - RHS
25
15
5
-5
-15
China: Refined Lead monthly production and YoY growth
Producti on
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
YoY - RHS
60
40
19
-2
-22
India: Company-wise refined Lead monthly production
10
HZL
8
6
4
2
0
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
15

Metals Weekly
Commodity forward curves
LME aluminum (USD/t)
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
Curre nt
1‐week ago
3‐month ago
LME copper (USD/t)
Cu rrent
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,600
7,400
7,200
7,000
6,800
1‐we ek ago
3‐month ago
LME zinc futures (USD/t)
Current
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
1‐week ago
3‐month ago
Base metals US spot premium (USD/t)
300
240
180
120
60
Al umi ni um
Zi nc
Copper
Source: LME/Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
16

Metals Weekly
China non-ferrous trade data
China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)
450
350
250
150
50
Imp orts
Exports
China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)
Imports
400
300
200
100
0
Exports
China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)
Export 
100
75
50
25
0
Import 
China’s alumina imports ('000 tons) and prices (USD/t)
800
600
400
200
0
Imports
Pri ces
 (RHS)
600
450
300
150
0
Source: LME/Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/ MOSL
16 January 2012
17

Metals Weekly
Key indicators
China new loan growth
1,600
1,250
900
550
200
China PMI
60
55
50
45
40
China: Fixed asset investmen t
36
33
30
27
24
Currency movement with respect to the rupee
USD (LHS)
58
54
50
70
46
42
38
62
54
GBP
EURO
86
78
The rupee appreciated 1.8% WoW
against the US dollar and was
trading at INR51.45/USD
Source: Bloomberg/MOSL
16 January 2012
18

Metals Weekly
Industrial production growth
The UK and the US
UK
16
8
0
‐8
‐16
USA
Japan
40
20
0
‐20
‐40
European Union
20
8
‐4
‐16
‐28
France
Germa ny
Ital y
BRIC
18
12
6
0
‐6
‐12
Rus s i a
Bra zi l
Indi a
Chi na
Source: Bloomberg/MOSL
16 January 2012
19

Metals Weekly
Stock Exchange announcements
Tata AIG Life Insurance has bought 23,000 shares of
Tata Steel
from the
open market last week.
The promoter and promoter group of
Bhushan Steel
has pledged 1.56m
shares of the company with L&T Finance Limited and got release of
1.60m shares pledged with DBS Cholamandlam.
The promoter and promoter group of
Adhunik Metaliks
bought 26,087
shares of the company from the open market last week.
NMDC Ltd
has incorporated a SPV by the name of
NMDC Power Ltd.
on
December 12, 2011 for setting up a power plant for captive power supply
to the 3 MTPA Integrated Steel Plant being constructed at Nagarnar. It
has also signed a contract for By Product Plant (BPP) Package with a
consortium led by M/s. Shriram EPC Ltd (SEPC) on January 10, 2012. The
total cost of the package is INR5,090m.
Resutls Announcements
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd: January 18, 2012
Sesa Goa Ltd: January 25, 2012
Hindalco Industries: February 9, 2012
Sterlite Industries: January 23, 2012
Hindustan Zinc: January 20, 2012
16 January 2012
20

Metals Weekly
Metals
Valuation Matrix
Valuations: Indian companies
Rating
Steel
Tat a Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
Sesa Goa
Non-Ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
Hindustan Zinc
Nalco
Hindalco
Price Mkt Cap
(INR) (USD M)
416
93
638
503
187
7,616
7,225
2,684
8,862
3,059
EPS (INR)
FY11
FY12E
62.3
12.0
77.4
40.1
49.0
38.1
7.9
50.7
44.7
45.7
FY13E
55.0
7.9
57.3
53.8
32.2
P/E (X)
FY12E FY13E
10.9
11.7
12.6
11.2
4.1
7.6
11.8
11.1
9.4
5.8
EV/EBITDA (X)
FY12E FY13E
6.1
8.4
7.0
8.9
6.1
5.1
8.1
6.0
8.1
8.8
P/B (X)
FY12E FY13E
1.5
1.0
0.8
2.6
1.0
1.3
0.9
0.8
2.1
0.9
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
103
127
58
133
6,555
10,121
2,827
4,992
15.2
11.6
4.2
17.6
16.0
13.7
4.2
17.4
17.3
16.4
6.3
19.0
6.4
9.3
13.8
7.6
6.0
7.8
9.2
7.0
3.4
5.3
5.8
5.8
2.4
3.5
3.1
5.2
0.7
1.9
1.3
1.4
0.7
1.6
1.1
1.2
Mid-caps
Monnet Ispat
Neutral
399
519
Godawari
Buy
100
63
Sarda Energy
Neutral
105
80
Tat a Sponge
Buy
255
80
Adhunik Metaliks
Buy
42
103
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
339
1,461
Jai Balaji
Buy
31
39
Rain Commodities*
Buy
32
223
Prakash Industries
Buy
38
103
* Rain Commodities follows calendar year reporting. Read
43.7
46.4
59.7
8.6
27.0
34.5
46.9
2.9
19.1
15.7
21.0
6.7
65.8
58.6
70.1
4.3
14.9
6.9
16.5
6.1
44.9
38.7
53.0
8.7
12.2
-12.5
6.1
-2.5
9.3
17.3
14.3
1.8
19.9
19.5
19.0
2.0
FY11/FY12/FY13 as CY10/CY11/CY12
6.7
2.1
5.0
3.6
2.5
6.4
5.1
2.2
2.0
10.9
3.8
9.2
1.2
5.2
9.1
10.1
2.9
3.6
8.3
4.1
6.1
0.5
3.5
8.6
5.9
3.0
2.9
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
BBG
Code
Steel
Arcelor Mittal
Posco
US Steel
Nucor
Gerdau
Bao Steel
Non-Ferrous
Alcoa
Teck R esource s
Xstrata
BHP-Billiton
Rio Tinto
MT NA
005490 KS
X US
NUE US
GGBR4 BZ
600019 CH
AA US
TCK US
XTA LN
BHP AU
RIO AU
Currency
Price
Mkt Cap
(USD M)
29,199
28,234
3,931
13,039
13,797
13,609
9,749
21,927
46,424
178,667
100,685
P/E (X)
CY11
CY12
8.6
8.3
-
17.7
13.7
9.3
12.3
9.1
7.8
8.7
7.7
7.7
7.1
11.3
13.3
11.3
7.7
10.9
8.4
6.9
8.1
7.4
EV/EBITDA(X)
CY11
CY12
5.6
5.2
7.4
7.8
7.5
6.0
6.4
4.6
4.8
4.6
4.2
5.5
4.8
5.0
6.5
6.6
5.5
P/BV
CY11
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.7
1.1
0.8
EUR
k KRW
USD
USD
BRL
CNY
USD
USD
GBp
AUD
AUD
14.7
385.5
27.3
41.2
15.8
4.9
9.2
37.3
10.2
35.2
62.5
6.2
0.7
4.4
1.2
4.3
1.0
4.3
2.6
4.1
1.8
Source: Bloomberg
16 January 2012
21

Metals Weekly
Metals Stock
Performance
SAIL has outperformed while JSPL
has underperformed the BSE Sensex
over the last one month
Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)
Months
Steel
Tat a Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-Ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
Hindustan Zinc
Nalco
Hindalco
Mid Caps
Monnet Ispat
Godawari
Sarda Energy
Tata Sponge
Adhunik Metaliks
Bhushan Steel
Jai Balaji
Rain Commodities
Prakash Industries
SENSEX
Best performer
Absolute Perf (%)
1
3
6
6.1
14.9
14.4
-3.4
3.9
7.9
3.8
4.6
14.0
2.9
8.4
-2.7
21.8
-9.9
11.5
10.9
-26.3
9.2
14.1
1.0
-7.9
-14.0
4.4
0.6
-30.3
-18.3
-13.8
6.4
-7.5
3.4
-18.1
-11.1
-15.3
-16.0
-14.3
4.9
-68.2
19.4
-22.1
-4.3
-27.8
-29.7
-25.1
-19.3
-32.1
-34.8
-37.5
-4.0
-28.8
-24.9
-21.2
-38.3
-49.6
-25.3
-46.9
-22.3
-83.2
-12.9
-44.1
-13.1
12
-34.8
-46.4
-36.4
-25.8
-34.3
-44.4
-43.4
-7.0
-40.0
-43.1
-28.6
-49.4
-64.5
-29.3
-58.9
-20.6
-86.8
-14.3
-65.1
-15.8
Relative Perf to Sensex (%)
1
3
6
12
5.1
14.0
13.4
-4.3
3.0
6.9
2.9
3.6
13.1
1.9
-3.5
-9.7
8.8
4.9
-26.0
-14.0
-9.4
10.7
-3.2
7.7
-14.7
-16.6
-12.0
-6.2
-19.0
-21.6
-24.3
9.2
-15.7
-11.8
-19.0
-30.6
-20.6
-10.0
-18.5
-28.6
-27.6
8.8
-24.3
-27.3
Among mid-cap companies, Sarda
Energy outperformed and Jai Balaji
underperformed the BSE Sensex
over the last one month
Worst performer
7.4 -13.8
-8.0 -12.9
-3.6
-6.8 -25.1 -33.6
20.9 -11.0 -36.4 -48.7
-10.9 -11.7 -12.1 -13.6
10.6 -10.0 -33.7 -43.1
9.9
9.3
-9.2
-4.8
-27.2 -63.9 -70.0 -71.1
8.3
23.8
0.2
1.5
13.2 -17.8 -30.9 -49.3
-
-
-
-
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Global Metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)
1week
1month
11.8
2.2
5.4
11.3
8.6
-1.5
6.4
7.8
15.1
4.8
1.0
-10.4
-3.6
8.0
19.5
22.9
8.4
-0.2
4.2
Absolute Perf (%)
3 months
6 months
8.5
-2.8
-10.0
12.5
11.5
-9.5
14.5
18.2
11.2
-6.0
4.7
-9.1
-17.6
-9.1
2.9
12.3
-3.0
-31.6
-11.1
-19.8
-16.1
-29.7
-23.2
-15.3
-43.1
-37.8
5.1
-34.2
-16.5
-14.3
-37.8
-28.6
-41.0
-37.0
-7.8
12 months
-20.9
-20.5
-35.5
-29.8
-24.6
-56.2
-50.7
-6.4
-40.4
-26.1
-18.2
-53.7
-38.1
-40.4
-30.9
-38.2
Among global mining companies, Rio
Tinto was the best performer while
Vedanta was the worst performing
stock over the last one month
Among global steel majors, Gerdau
was the best performer while JFE
Holdings was the worst performing
stock over the last one month
Mining
Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton
Va l e
Xstrata
Anglo American
Vedant a
Steel
US Steel
Nucor
Arcelor Mittal
Bao Steel
Posco
JFE Holdings
Nippon
Thyssen Krupp
Voest Alpine
Gerdau
Aluminium
Alcoa
Rusal
Chalco
Best performer
7.5
3.9
1.1
4.6
4.1
7.9
0.5
1.7
4.6
2.0
2.1
-0.5
1.1
-1.7
3.5
7.3
7.0
10.8
9.9
Worst performer
-38.2
-37.8
-48.9
-55.8
-40.8
-50.7
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
16 January 2012
22

Motilal Oswal
Product Gallery
weekly
Motilal Oswal
Sector
Periodicals
power utilities monthly

Metals Weekly
Disclosures
This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement
to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its
affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its af filiates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness
for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision
based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report.To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest
Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1.
2.
3.
4.
Analyst ownership of the stock
Group/Directors ownership of the stock
Broking relationship with company covered
Investment Banking relationship with company covered
Companies where there is interest
Jindal Steel & Power, Prakash Industries
No
No
No
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible
for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to
law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For U.K.
This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005 (referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not investment professionals. Any investment or investment activity to
which this document relates is only available to investment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons.
For U.S.
MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S.,
Motilal Oswal has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major
institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco
Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
3rd Floor, Hoechs t House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com