September 2011
3T
T
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Indian telecom monthly
19
20
20
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Main Menu
SIM:
Special In the Month ......................................................
Bharti Airtel: CEO track takeaways from 7th Annual global investor conference
Idea Cellular: CEO track takeaways from 7th Annual global investor conference
2
Gallery
Industry wireless net additions (m)
15
Numbers:
Statistical Review (July) ...........................................
4
Buzz:
Monthly Updates ..........................................................
10
Indian Telecom: Jul-11 GSM net adds down 11% MoM at 7.6m; reflects rationality in
competition rather than broad-based slowdown; Buy Bharti, Idea
Investor meeting takeaways from 7th Annual global investor conference: Bharti
Airtel, Idea Cellular, Reliance Communications
Reliance Comm 1QFY12 results: Downgrading revenue/EBITDA by 3-9%; leverage
concerns remain; Neutral
Idea Cellular - The Corner Office: Recent tariff hikes to flow through in four
quarters; Revenue market share trend to decode the future
Indian Telecom: Vodafone India stake sale at EV of ~USD18b; implied EV/EBITDA at
~12x FY11 v/s ~11x for Bharti/Idea
13
11
7
July-11 subscriber market share (inner)
1QFY12 AGR market share (outer)
5 3
9
7
10
14
11
8
11
20
Absolute performance (%)
Bharti
Idea
RCOM
Bharti Airtel
7
20
32
RCo m
Vodafo ne
BSNL+M TNL
Messages:
Key Sector Developments (August)
................................ 19
Signals:
Sector Outlook & Valuation
........................................................ 21
17
17
8
Idea
Tata Tele
Aircel
New entrants
Speed Dial:
Monthly Summary
GSM subscriber net adds (ex RCOM and Tata DOCOMO) is 7.6m in Jul-11
v/s 8.6m in Jun-11, down 11% MoM and 34% YoY. All major operators
except BSNL & Uninor reported lower net additions on MoM basis with
decline of 26-29% recorded by Bharti, Idea and Vodafone.
Reliance Communications reported 1QFY12 PAT of INR1.57b, lower than
our estimate of INR2.09b due to lower EBITDA and higher minority interest.
Adjusted revenue declined 3.3% YoY and 7.3% QoQ to INR49.4b (10%
below est) mainly due to lower revenue in non-wireless business. Maintain
Neutral
with revised target price of INR83 (INR106 earlier).
Recently announced transaction involving 5.5% stake sale in Vodafone
Essar for a consideration of INR28.6b (USD640m) implies an EV of ~USD18b
and equity valuation of ~USD11.5b for Vodafone Essar. The deal values
Vodafone Essar at FY11 EV/EBITDA of ~12x, EV/sales of ~3x, and EV/sub
of ~USD130.
We reiterate
Buy
on Bharti/Idea and
Neutral
on RCom. We expect EBITDA
CAGR of 25% for Bharti and 42% for Idea over FY11-13E. Improving
competitive environment in the wireless sector should drive better revenue
growth as well as expansion in margins for Indian wireless companies.
Sensex
67
44
17
25 6
5
-2 -8-3
1W
1M
8
-9-9
3M
26
20
-6-8
6M
-8
-48
12M
41
Stock price performance v/s Sensex
Bharti rebased
Sensex rebased
160
130
100
70
40
RCom rebased
Idea rebased
Comparative valuations
CMP
(INR)
Rating
TP
Mcap
(INR) (USDb)
33.6
7.2
3.8
P/E (x)
FY11 FY12E
25.6
36.9
11.7
19.8
38.7
16.5
FY13E
13.3
14.8
9.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY11 FY12E FY13E
10.9
11.5
7.6
8.1
8.4
6.9
6.2
5.9
5.3
EV/Sales (x)
FY11 FY12E FY13E
3.8
2.8
2.4
3.0
2.3
2.2
2.5
1.8
1.8
Bharti *
409
Buy
530
Idea
100
Buy
140
RCom
85
Neutral
83
* Proportionate EV/EBITDA and EV/sales
Shobhit Khare
(Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5428