MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
May 2017
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
•
Investment Ideas
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• NFO
Key Highlights in April 2017 - New Highs
Liquidity drives market to new highs
FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged in its May policy.
Currency (INR) appreciates sharply
Dear Investor,
Market in April 2017:
Liquidity driven momentum takes
market to new highs. After delivering 19% returns in FY17,
the Nifty made a good start to FY18 with 1.4% gains in April-
2017. Notably, the index delivered positive returns for the
fourth consecutive month, led by benign global cues, strong
domestic liquidity and a good start to the 4QFY17 result
season. Indian currency has also rallied 5.4% in the first four months of CY17,
bolstering dollar index returns. Mid and small caps basket continues to roar. The mid-
cap index, after delivering 35% returns in FY17, rose 5.2% in April. The market also
saw ninth consecutive month of domestic mutual fund inflows (USD 1.5b in April).
FII turned cautious and did some profit taking. Their outflows came in at USD 0.3b
after two months of inflows.
Over last 12 months, MSCI EM and MSCI India have delivered 15-16% returns each.
However, over last five years, MSCI India outperformed MSCI EM by 96%. In April,
India-Sensex (+12%), Korea (+9%), Brazil (+9%) and Indonesia (+7%) were the best
performers among the key global markets in local currency terms. However, at 22.5x
Pre. Mth
Global Market
Index
30-Apr 17
MoM (%)
YoY(%)
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
29,918
9,304
7,204
20,941
6,048
24,615
1.0
1.4
-1.6
1.3
2.3
2.1
16.8
18.5
15.4
17.8
26.7
16.8
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
IIP
WPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
-1.2%
5.70%
6.96%
64.24
51.73
28887
2.7%
6.55%
6.68%
64.85
52.83
28527
trailing 12 months and 19x FY18E P/E, valuations do not offer much comfort unless
accompanied by a big earnings surprise.
Q4FY17 earnings so far have been in line and in a few cases better than expected.
Sales, EBITDA and PAT for 41 MOSL universe companies that have reported their
4QFY17 results have grown at 15.8%, 12.3% and 6.8% v/s expectations of 16.7%,
8.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Among large caps Reliance Industries, Maruti and HDFC
Bank delivered better set of numbers. Private Banks, Housing Finance, Cement and
select automobile companies have shown strong earnings traction in Q4FY17. While
early 4QFY17 results have shown strong trends, we believe progress of monsoon,
currency movement and GST implementation will be the key catalysts for market.
Outlook May 2017:
On Global front, FOMC voted not to raise its key interest rate,
as central bank officials expressed concern over the pace of economic growth.
Geopolitical concerns and world economic growth may turn out to be key limiting
factors for stretched equity markets. We however, remain optimistic on the market
and expect Nifty to hit 10K levels in FY18.
Dharmesh Kant
Vice President- Head - Retail Research
Thought for the month
1
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
May 2017
Investment Ideas
√
The Ramco Cements (TRCL) is one of the top three cement producers in South India with
Ramco Cement
CMP*:
Target:
INR 687
INR 815
total capacity of 12.5mtpa (0.95mtpa in West Bengal and the balance in the South).
√
With ~12% market share in the south, strong brand recall, dealer network and competi-
tive pricing it is all set to reap benefits of higher demand coming from housing and infra
space.
BUY
√
We estimate 17% EBITDA and 24% PBT CAGR over FY17E-19E. Based on FY19E per
share target price of Ramco comes at INR815.
Equitas Holdings
CMP*:
Target:
INR 166
INR 220
√
With a presence in the MFI business (50% of AUM), Used Commercial Vehicles finance
(25%), MSE finance (20%) and Housing finance (5%).
√
Over last five years, EQUITAS recorded a CAGR of 50% in AUM, led by strong traction in
MFI business and commencement of new business lines
BUY
√
We expect earnings CAGR of 27% over FY16-21, driven by strong AUM CAGR of 28%
and operating leverage (from FY19). We expect 800bp+ improvement in C/I to ~58%
over FY19-21. RoAs are expected to reduce to 1.7% in FY19, but start improving there-
after to ~2% levels by FY21 and ROEs to 16% in FY21 from ~11% in FY17.
√
BUY with target price of EHL comes at INR220.
SRF
CMP*:
Target:
INR 1,771
INR 1,825
√
SRF is a multi-business entity involved in Technical Textiles (TTB; 45% of FY15 revenue),
Chemicals (CB; 28%), and Packaging (PB; 27%).
√
We believe, once the global Agrochem bounces back, SRF will benefit the most as it has
got capacities in place and has only improved its R&D prowess over the years.
√
We expect it to post 11% revenue CAGR while adj. PAT to register 20% CAGR over
BUY
FY16-19E. We value the stock on SOTP basis and recommend Buy with a target price of
INR1,825.
√
PI boasts of a unique business model-a strong R&D-led custom synthesis business (59% of
revenues) build over the last two decades, and an equally compelling domestic agro-
chemicals business (41% of revenues), largely built by in-licensing arrangements with
major global agro-chemicals innovators.
√
With a strong order book amounting to ~USD850m, the CSM business has robust rev-
enue visibility-book-to-bill of 4.4x; we thus expect 18% revenue CAGR over FY16-19E.
√
We believe PI is one of the best plays on India's agri sector and CSM opportunities. We
value the stock at 24x FY19E earnings and maintain Buy with a target price of INR1,046.
Data as on 30th April 2017.
PI Industries
CMP*:
Target:
INR 870
INR 1,046
BUY
2
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Monthly Markets Newsletter
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
May 2017
Equity Market Outlook
Technical Outlook
√
Nifty continued its positive move for fourth consecutive month and registered
a fresh life time high of 9367 with monthly surge of 1.42%. It consolidated
for first three weeks of the month but later rallied well by 2% in the last week
and registered a new record high. During the month it made double bottom
near to 9080 and triggered fresh up move as it surpassed its falling supply
trend line above 9218 mark. Positive globe cues, lower volatility and sustained
buying in banking stocks supported the broader market to cheer the higher
levels while BSE Sensex claimed its 30,000 mark.
√
On the weekly scale it gave a consolidation breakout above 9273 and regis-
tered a fresh high of 9367. It has to hold above 9280 zone to extend its move
towards 9500 zones while an absence of follow up buying and a drift below
9250 may cause in short term toping formation in the market.
√
On the daily scale index made three swing highs at 9218, 9273 and 9367 in
last 28 trading sessions while every time RSI indicator was making the lower
highs which is forming a process of negative divergence on the Daily chart.
However it has a negative implication but index has to decline to confirm this
√
pattern while a move above 9380 would nullify the impact of this formation.
Bank Nifty outperformed the Nifty index in the last month as it closed with the
monthly gains of 4.26% compare to Nifty gains of 1.42%. Bank Nifty regis-
tered its fresh life time high of 22383 and witnessed sustain buying in most of
the PSU and Private heavy weight counters. Now it has to hold its current
levels to extend its up move towards 22550 and 22750 zones while a decline
below 22000 may drag it towards 21700 then next major support of 21400.
Strategy-
Strategy
Data indicates that immediate trend is intact but pause in mo-
mentum and a drift below 9250 could cause a profit booking however stock
specific action is likely to be there in the market
Nifty Daily
Nifty Weekly
USDINR
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-May2017.pdf
Sectoral Highlights
Sector
Auto
Oil & Gas
Our Views
Positive
Positive
Top Pick
Bharat Forge.
ONGC
MBP / MSP
Buy / 1144
Buy / 186
SL / TGT
1085 / 1250
181 / 196
Data as on 30th April 2017.
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective
3
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Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
May 2017
Derivatives Market Outlook
SECTOR OI
Banknifty- Short Strangle Strategy
: INR 6400 Between 21500-23000
: Buy future above : 23100 or
Sell future below : 21400
√
Auto:
Auto sector witnessed lower rollover of ~75%. Long built-up was witnessed in Margin : INR 1.14 lakh
two- wheeler stocks like TVSMOTOR. Auto Ancilliary stocks like Amarajabat
Nifty witnessed in line rollover of 63% V/s 3 MA of 67%.Further it witnessed shedding
in total open interest to 31mn in May series shares from 38 mn shares in April series
indicating relatively less position being carried forward. Index gained 1.8% sequen-
tially E-o-E. Banknifty witnessed above average roll-over of 75% with incremental built
up in open interest viz-a-viz 3 month average of 61%. Market-wide roll-over were in
line at 79%. Overall long built-up was witnessed in Cement, Tyre, PSU bank and Infra
sector. Short were witnessed in Pharma and Metal.
Sell 25 May'17 23000 CE 1 lot;
Sell 25 May'17 21500 PE 1 lot
Target
Hedge
√
Cement:
Lower roll of 73%. Fresh long built-up in Ambujacem while short covering in
Ultracemco and India cem
√
√
√
Banknifty is in long- long unwinding cycle
√
PSU bank:
Lower roll of 69%. However significant long built-up with positive price
action in stocks like BankIndia, Canbk, Orientbank, PNB and Southbank
Index witnessed strong rollover, however post stellar rally in past
few expiry Index could consolidate in May expiry
Highest call congestion is at 23000 while Put congestion is at
21500 acting as likely trading zone
Considering falling volatility, Short Strangle is recommended
√
Pvt Bank:
Lower roll of 75%. Long in Kotak bank and IDFCBank
√
√
NBFC:
In line rollover of 78%. Significant longs in DHFL, Bajajfin, M&Mfin and Relcapital
√
IT:
Poor rollover of 70%. Short in Tataelxsi, Mindtree and Hcltech
Commodities Market Outlook
Gold
√
Gold prices gained last month amid choppy trading as geo-political concerns ebbed and flowed. Overall, gold has seen an uptrend in the
recent months with prices in India up 4.5% so far this year owing to range of factors that included political risks from Europe, geo-political
tensions around North Korea and Donald Trump's domestic policy-reform related issues. If we see major progress on his policy agenda, the
reflation trade could be back and hit gold prices further. We however believe that passing major bills will be equally hard like what happened
with the health care reform and wrangling over key reforms could be supportive for gold from a medium term perspective. On the demand
side, Gold ETF's saw a marginal inflow of 21 tonnes last month and holdings are up by ~49 tonnes year to date.
√
On the whole, we believe that even as the broader trend in gold remains positive, we could see a price correction if geo-political concerns ease
and focus shifts back to the Fed. While geo-political tensions can still crop up, political risks from Europe seem to have subsided considerably.
After the Dutch election, the French elections also seem to suggest that the anti-euro sentiment seems to have waned. We have already seen
risk sentiment improving post the result and safe-haven assets could take a beating in the coming days. This is a near-term risk to prices from
a trading perspective.
√
Trump's policy agenda will be a key driver from a medium term perspective. If he fails to deliver on promised reforms, gold could start the next
leg of its upward move.
4
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
MOSt Multi Cap
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
LIC Housing Fin
Hero Motocorp
Zee Entert.
HDFC Bank
C G Consumer Elec.
Can Fin Homes Ltd
Sterling Tools Ltd
P I Industries Ltd
SRF Ltd
Shriram City Union
Castrol India Ltd
Equitas Holdings
Cash
Total
MOSt Multi Cap , MOSt Velocity
Build a Portfolio
May 2017
Long Term Investors
Few months to a year
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
15
100
Returns
3mth
6mth
12mth
44.6%
16.8%
22.9%
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a
MIDCAP approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT will have the
following characteristics:
√
Corpus requirement to INR 10 Lakhs
√
50% in Large-cap and 50% in mid-cap
√
15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum
√
Large-cap stocks are suitable for SIP investments as well
√
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
CMP
669
3319
527
1547
220
2617
253
870
1771
2237
438
166
MOSt Multicap 10.1% 4.9%
Sensex
BSE 200
8.2%
7.1%
10.3% 8.8%
Ramco Cements Ltd 687
Absolute returns as on 30 April 2017
MOSt Velocity
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
Aurobindo Pharma
Lupin Ltd
Shriram City Union
Tata Motors
M& M Ltd
Investment Norms: INR 10 lakhs (Model Corpus)
Medium Term Investors
Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
30
100
Returns
Portfolio
BSE 200
3mth
8.3%
9.2%
6mth
1.6%
8.8%
12mth
17.7%
23.0%
√
Maximum stocks open : 10
√
Target Investment Horizon: 1 Year
√
Cash holding based on market direction call. Cash to be deployed
in case of sharp market falls
√
Occasional Hedging by buying options
√
Investment Rationale on every idea is provided
√
10% in a particular Stock and 30% (max) in a Sector
CMP
607
1338
2237
459
1336
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 3319
Amara Raja Batteries 890
Cash
Total
Absolute returns as on 30 April 2017
5
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MOSt PMS - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
May 2017
MOSt PMS
Value Strategy
√
Inception date: - 25th March 2003.
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√
INR 1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR23.60 Crs vs. 9.21Crs in Nifty
50.
√
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 25.11% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 17.04%, an outperformance of 8.07% (CAGR).
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
Scrips
% Holdings
11.87
11.47
10.27
8.89
8.57
HDFC Ltd.
HDFC Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Bosch
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Oil and Gas
FMCG
Pharmaceuticals
% Holdings
33.61
26.85
8.89
7.25
6.91
NTDOP Strategy
√
Inception date: - 11th Dec 2007.
√
The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√
In last three year, strategy has delivered a return of 36.67% CAGR vs. NIFTY Free float
Midcap 100 is 27.22% CAGR i.e., NTDOP has delivered an alpha of 10.64%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips
Kotak Mahindra Bank
HPCL
Voltas
Bajaj Finance
Eicher Motors
% Holdings
10.92
8.98
7.32
7.09
6.75
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Diversified
Oil and Gas
% Holdings
30.22
16.40
14.38
11.51
11.33
India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy
√
Inception date: - 15th Feb 2010.
√
The Strategy aims to benefit from the long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√
In last 1 year, IOP Strategy has delivered a returns of 65.82% vs Nifty Free Float Midcap 100
returns of 37.07%, i.e. delivered an alpha of 28..75%
√
Focus Theme for Next Five year: REVIVAL IN CAPEX CYCLE | MAKE IN INDIA | THIRD
TRILLION DOLLAR OPPORTUNITIES
√
Investment Approach: Buy & Hold
√
Investments with Long term perspective
√
Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Top Holdings in IOP Strategy
Scrips
Development Credit Bank
Birla Corporation
Aegis Logistics
Quess Corporation
Canfin Home
% Holdings
13.87
10.73
8.22
6.72
6.40
Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Cement & Infrastructure
Oil and Gas
Consumer Durable
Pharmaceuticals
% Holdings
27.21
14.55
13.85
11.55
11.40
Data as on 30th April 2017.
6
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Why Micro Cap NOW?
Investment Product
NFO
May 2017
Select Micro Cap Series XV
√
Micro Caps are defined as companies ranked 301 and over by market cap on the NSE. This segment is under invested & under researched segment
offering potential for significant returns.
√
India has emerged stronger from the recent trying events. The combined effect of Demonetization and GST reforms will pave the way for a faster
shift of the economy from the unorganized to the organized sector. This clearly has positive implications for listed entities especially micro caps as
they are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of this shift.
√
Good quality Micro Cap stocks perform better in bull market. For example, 125 Micro Cap stocks generated 10x returns in 2003 to 2008.
Key Highlights of the fund:-
Basic Feature of Fund:-
1. A five year close-ended Equity Scheme
2. NFO starting on 10th MAY 2017 & CLOSING ON 24th MAY 2017
3. BENCHMARK :- S&P BSE
Small Cap Index 4. Fund Manager:- S. Krishnakumar
The first 3 series of funds as already declared dividend of 100% in last 3 years, which means one who invested Rs. 100 in NFO recovered Rs. 100 as
dividend. And, currently NAV of the fund is around Rs. 15; it means TOTAL RETURN OF THE FUND is 150%+ in last 3 years.
Performance update of all the series:-
Returns as on 2nd May 2017
7
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