MOSt Market Outlook– Detailed Report

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

Nifty Chart

Nifty Outlook

Index

CMP

Nifty Cash

9930

9980

10020

9880

9850

BankNifty

24304

24500 24750 24150 24000

Nifty index opened positive and headed towards 9965 mark,

but it failed to hold its gains and corrected towards 9920

levels. It formed a small candle and got stuck in the broader

trading range of 9850 to 9980 zones from last seven trading

sessions. It closed positive with the gains of 14 points near

to its key level of 9928. Now it has to continue to hold above

9928 zones to witness an up move towards 9980 while on

the downside supports are seen at 9880 then 9850 levels.

Currency (USDINR) Outlook

USDINR

64.16

63.80

63.65

64.05

64.25

Market Drivers

Indian indices closed flattish. Stocks like Eicher,

Indiabulls housing, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra did

see gains but stocks like ITC dragged down the

market. Select Pharma stocks did see some pull

back. In mid-caps, stock specific action continued

though the mid cap index closed flat as well.

Flows continue to remain mixed with FIIs

continuing to be net sellers. Asia is trading mixed.

Sectors like financials, metals and auto continue

to look positive. Infrastructure, defense space

remains interesting. Larsen remains the

preferred play to participate in the likely pick up

in infrastructure. Cement as a space could also

continue to see investment interest as it will be

key beneficiary.

Trading Idea - Cash & Future

Scrip

HINDALCO

Reco

Buy

CMP

250

245

Target

260

Sideways consolidation within 63.80 - 64.05 is expected

for the session.

Sectoral Outlook

Sector

NBFC

METALS

Outlook

POSITIVE

Highest Call OI

Instrument

Nifty 28 - Sep

Bank Nifty 28 - Sep

Bank Nifty 7 - Sep

Strike

10000

24500

25000

4714350

943640

390040

Chg in OI

386550

323360

270560

Corporate Action:

Dividends -

ABHIJIT, ANDREWYU, AROGRANITE, BIGBLOC,

DAAWAT, GRASIM, KRBL, MANAKINDLTD, MARATHON,

ORIBEVER, ORIENTREF, POKARNA, SANCTRN, SWASTIKA,

THEBYKE, VICTMILL, VMART, WHIRLPOOL

Trading Idea - Derivatives

STRATEGY UPDATE : AXIS BANK RATIO BULL CALL SPREAD

Instrument

B/S

Lot

Reco

CMP

AXIS BANK CE 510

AXIS BANK CE 520

AXIS BANK CE 530

Buy

Sell

10.75

6.75

3.95

5.75

3.90

1.75

Highest Put OI

Instrument

Nifty 28 - Sep

Bank Nifty 28 - Sep

Bank Nifty 7 - Sep

Strike

9700

24000

5040675

847880

391640

Chg in OI

356700

38560

259520

Security in Ban period:

IBREALEST, JSWENERGY, JUSTDIAL

Today Event

Stop Loss : 3000; Target : 6000

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

Trading Calls

HINDALCO

Buy

CMP :

Target :

INR 250

INR 260

Derivatives Idea

AXIS BANK

RATIO BULL CALL SPREAD

Buy 1 Lot 510 CE

Sell 1 Lot 520 CE

Sell 1 Lot 530 CE

Price breaks out of a small ascending triangle. The prior trend

is up and an ascending triangle being a continuation pattern

suggests that the prices are likely to see more upsides in com-

ing sessions

Metal stocks are on a roll and we are expecting this stock to

rally towards 260, thus suggesting to buy at current levels with

a stop below 245

It has been respecting to its multiple support of 500 zones from

last nine sessions

It has the behaviour to move in a range bound manner

Maximum Put OI at 500 strike could support it to hold above 500

zones

Maximum Call OI at 520 strike could restrict its upside momen-

tum

Thus low cost Ratio Bull Call Spread is recommending

FII & DII Activity (INR in Cr)

FII F&O

6th Sep

-1353

5th Sep

-379

474

Institution

INDEX FUTURES

INDEX OPTIONS

STOCK FUTURES

Net B/S

-107

1,517

-275

Short Built Up

Put Buying

Short Built Up

Cat.

FII

DII

7th Sep

-564

245

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

Long Built-up

Short Built-up

Long Unwinding

Short Covering

Nifty Option OI

1- Day change in Nifty OI

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

Research Notes

Morning Meet Notes

Shree Cement - Annual Report: Expanding footprint in new regions - (CMP18480, TP22360, Recom BUY)

o Diversification strategy; adding capacity (up to 6.4m tonnes in the East & 3m tonnes in the South)

o Aggressive capacity addition program continues (by ~32% over the next two years)

o Capex cost remains lowest in the market (capex per tonne of USD32)

o Cost leadership maintained (unitary cost of power & fuel declined by ~6%)

o Securing resources for sustainable growth in the East

o We value it at TP of INR22360 (15x FY20E EV/EBITDA)

Healthcare - Brace for impact: Significant changes in Draft Pharma Policy

o Draft Pharma Policy out - suggested changes concern stakeholders

o First step toward transitioning from branded generic to trade generic market

o Requirement of BA/BE studies and focus on quality control to increase cost

o One manufacturer, one salt, one brand name and one price

o Diluting powers of NPPA, Capping of trade margins, Unfair marketing practice,

o Draft policy in current form can lead to double whammy

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

MOSt Market Outlook

8th September 2017

Currency Ideas

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR continued its weakness for the second session closing at 64.16.

Immediate support is at 63.80 - 63.70 area whereas resistances are pegged at

64.05 / 64.25.

Sideways consolidation within 63.80 - 64.05 is expected and either side breach

could be decisive.

Immediate support for the pair is at 77.00 followed by 76.65 and bias will

remain positive as long as price stays above the same.

The pair is likely to test 77.60 - 77.80 levels in short-term.

MOSt Market Outlook

Chandan Taparia

Research Analyst (Derivatives & Technical Analyst)

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MOSt Market Outlook

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