BSE SENSEX
28,413
S&P CNX
8,743
Ashok Leyland
CMP: INR82
TP: INR105 (+29%)
Board approves merger of Hinduja Foundries
See marginal impact on EPS in FY17/18 due to tax shield
15 September 2016
Update
| Sector:
Automobiles
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
AL IN
2,845.9
113/78
-7/-30/-17
232.1
3.5
1,356
49.6
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
188.2 231.7 275.9
EBITDA
21.7
30.5
35.7
NP
11.1
18.5
24.1
Adj. EPS (INR)
3.9
6.5
8.5
EPS Gr. (%)
375.1
66.4
30.2
BV/Sh. (INR)
19.4
24.2
30.3
RoE (%)
20.9
29.8
31.0
RoCE (%)
12.8
21.9
25.2
P/E (x)
20.9
12.6
9.6
P/BV (x)
4.2
3.4
2.7
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
50.4
50.4
38.8
DII
9.6
10.0
12.4
FII
10.6
6.4
32.6
Others
29.4
33.3
16.2
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Ashok Leyland
Sensex - Rebased
120
105
90
75
60
Merger of HFL to result in ~2.8% dilution, increase promoters stake to 51.3%
(+90bp)
Swap ratio implies discount of ~38% to HFL's closing price of ~INR54.5 on
14/Sep/16.
Though materiality of this deal might be low, it deviates from the
managements stated objective of streamlining AL's balance sheet.
While we are yet to factor in for HFL in our AL's estimates, given tax shield on
accumulated losses we see limited change in FY17/18 EPS.
We now value AL at ~8x EV/EBITDA (v/s 9x earlier), to factor in for potential
impact of this deal on capital efficiencies.
Contours of the deal
AL's board has approved merger of Hinduja Foundries (HFL), the group
company supplying cylinder blocks and heads to AL.
Share swap ratio approved is at 40 shares of AL for every 100 shares of HFL,
resulting in dilution of ~2.8% for AL. This would result in increase in promoters
stake in AL to 51.3% (from 50.4%).
AL has ~2.6% equity stake in HFL and preference share investment of
~INR3.25b, which would get canceled on merger.
This deal is subject to various regulatory approval and approval of shareholders
(approval from ~75% of minority shareholders).
Swap ratio implies discount of ~62% to HFL's closing price of ~INR54.5 on
14/Sep/16.
About Hinduja Foundries
HFL is one of the largest producers of cylinder blocks and heads in India. In
FY16 (12m), it had revenues of INR5.8b (-7% YoY), adj EBITDA loss of ~INR312m
(-6% margins) and adj PAT loss of ~INR1.7b. It has net debt of ~INR4.5b as of
Mar-16.
It currently has 2 manufacturing plants, with total capacity of ~132k tons and
operates at 60-65% utilization.
For HFL, AL contributes ~35% of its revenues, with ~55% coming from tractor
segment and balance from other CVs and non-auto segment.
Promoters (incl AL) own 18.4% stake in HFL and GDR holders owning ~65.5%
(owners not disclosed).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Venil Shah
(Venil.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
/Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.